Nuclear risks underscore the threat of a new Cold War. Both parties are to blame.
Before the Trump administration intensified new cold wars with China and Russia, the Obama administration unveiled plans for the U.S. national security state’s so-called “Asia pivot,” an explicit promise to beef up U.S. military presence in East Asia and a clear threat to the aforementioned nuclear powers. The Trump administration has since increased tensions with China and Russia alike by withdrawing from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) last year and from the Open Skies Treaty in May. Most recently, Trump announced that his administration is considering resuming nuclear bomb tests for the first time since 1992. As the U.S. struggles to contain the coronavirus, grassroots organizers must pressure the U.S. government to embrace international cooperation in order to slow both the spread of the virus and this dangerous arms race. Trump’s reckless decisions pose a threat to the entire world community; now, it is seemingly more important than ever for the U.S. to ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test–Ban Treaty (CTBT), an agreement that bans all nuclear explosions.
Although Trump is certainly the more cartoonish cold warrior, President Obama also bears responsibility for provoking China and Russia. In 2009, he declared himself the “first Pacific president” and sought to shift the U.S.’s focus away from the War on Terror and towards “great-power competition” with China and Russia. Two years later, in 2011, Foreign Policy ran an article by then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in which she called the U.S. “to dispatch the full range of our diplomatic assets — including our highest-ranking officials, our development experts, our interagency teams, and our permanent assets — to every country and corner of the Asia-Pacific region.” In the same piece, Clinton justified U.S. imperialism in Asia by claiming that “harnessing Asia’s growth and dynamism is central to American economic and strategic interests and a key priority for President Obama.”
Ultimately, the Obama administration’s hawkishness was not merely rhetorical; the administration made concrete steps to accelerate great-power competition with China and Russia. By 2011, the U.S. had negotiated agreements to place missile defense systems in Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea. In response, China increased its defense budget by 11 percent the following year. Similarly, the U.S. encircled Russia by placing missile defense systems in Turkey, Romania, Poland, and Georgia. Finally, at the Warsaw Summit in July 2016, NATO leaders announced the Initial Operational Capability of NATO’s Ballistic Missile Defense System. On that same day, the U.S. agreed to deploy the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) System to South Korea. Both moves were made despite Russian and Chinese objections, an indication of the Obama administration’s commitment to great-power competition with China and Russia.
Though their approaches have differed, both Democratic and Republican administrations have actively pursued new cold wars with China and Russia, putting the entire world in danger in the name of empire. Since Obama left office, Trump has undoubtedly ratcheted up U.S. aggression in the great-power competition and escalated the international arms race by withdrawing from a number of nuclear arms agreements. For example, in August 2019, Trump officially withdrew the U.S. from the INF, a key arms control agreement between Russia and the US that placed restrictions on the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals. Then, on May 21, the administration announced its intention to withdraw from the Open Skies Treaty, an agreement that allowed for its 35 member states to fly unarmed aircrafts over other member states to increase transparency and confidence. Just days after the Open Skies announcement, a report published by the Washington Post revealed that the Trump administration is considering resuming nuclear weapons testing for the first time since 1992, perhaps the administration’s most dangerous move yet.
International cooperation is the only way to slow down this nuclear arms race, yet the Trump administration’s brash decision-making and dangerous treaty withdrawals have eroded trust among those negotiating with the U.S. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian stated that “we’re gravely concerned about the [Washington Post] report.” It’s certainly unsettling news to Russia, as well. Although Trump has made belligerent threats and proclamations under the guise of “national security,” his moves have unquestionably made the U.S., and the world more broadly, less safe. Suggesting that the U.S. may resume nuclear weapons tests only increases the likelihood of both China and Russia resuming such tests.
Therefore, it is critical that the CTBT be ratified as soon as possible. Although the CTBT has not yet entered into force, neither China nor Russia, nor the U.S., has tested nuclear weapons since the treaty was adopted by the UN General Assembly in 1996. Since then, only India, Pakistan, and North Korea have conducted tests. Still, the fact that it is not officially in effect, and that eight countries still need to ratify it, allows for the Trump administration to entertain such an option. The fact of the matter is that the U.S. does not have to comply with the treaty.
Nagasaki, as seen after much of the city was flattened by the U.S. atomic blast, the second military use of atomic weapons in history. (Creative Commons via Wikimedia Commons)
The U.S. has a unique responsibility to be the prime mover
As the only country that has dropped nuclear weapons on civilian populations in wartime, the U.S. has an obligation to lead the world in eliminating nuclear weapons. Why should U.S. adversaries abandon their nuclear programs when the U.S. has destroyed countries that have done so? Should China and Russia be expected to comply with the arms control agreements that the U.S. has recently violated and withdrawn from? It’s natural for countries that have been provoked and threatened by the largest empire in world history to take the necessary steps to defend themselves.
Because both Democratic and Republican parties have fanned the flames of new cold wars with China and Russia, pressure must be applied across the political spectrum to urge the U.S. to immediately reduce tensions with both countries. With the New START Treaty between the U.S. and Russia set to expire in February 2021, U.S. leadership must embrace diplomacy, return to the treaties that it has withdrawn from, and ratify the CTBT. Additionally, it is essential that the U.S. adopt a No-First-Use policy and put an end to the policy that grants the executive the sole authority to launch a nuclear attack. Global powers must work together — not against each other — to combat the coronavirus pandemic, to save the world from climate catastrophe, and to prevent nuclear war.